Ukrainians make up about 5% of Poland’s labor force, predominantly working in industries such as manufacturing, construction, services, and transport, according to the report published on Tuesday by state-owned Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK). BGK economists estimate that Ukrainian immigration—dating back to 2013—boosted Polish GDP by 0.5% to 2.4% annually in recent years.
Economic importance and integration
BGK board member Jarosław Dąbrowski described the flow of Ukrainian workers as “strategic” for Poland, considering the country’s aging population and labor shortages.
“Besides Poland’s national interest in supporting a sovereign Ukraine, we have an obvious economic stake in cooperation with our eastern neighbor,” he said.
BGK’s chief economist Mateusz Walewski noted that many Ukrainian migrants still accept jobs below their qualifications, particularly war refugees, whose employment rate lags behind pre-war migrants.
Ensuring access to higher-skilled positions and training programs is crucial for long-term integration, the report added.
Budget contribution vs social benefits
The study found that Ukrainian migrants contribute more in taxes and social security payments than they receive in welfare. BGK estimates income from migrant taxes and insurance contributions at around 15.1 billion zlotys, compared with 2.8 billion zlotys in Family 800+ benefits. Migrants also gain access to public healthcare and free education, among other benefits.
Housing market and trade
Contrary to concerns that Ukrainian immigration fuels Polish property prices, BGK data shows only 2.7% of real estate transactions in 2023 involved Ukrainians. Inflation and credit market conditions, rather than immigration, are the primary drivers of property value increases, the report says.
Analysts also highlight an increase in trade flows between Poland and Ukraine, with Polish exports to Ukraine quadrupling over the past decade.
While remittances from Poland to Ukraine also grew sharply, the share of these transfers in overall outflows has begun to decline—an indication, according to BGK, that migrants are settling in Poland and spending more locally.
(jh)
Source: PAP